My prediction is they’re going to botch the best actress award.

It should be Mikey Madison for Anora. It should be Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. At the very least, I can say with confidence that it won’t be Angelina Jolie for her jarring performance in Maria—an experience that felt like being trapped in a collapsing house with no way out.

But what I really want to get across is this: it just shouldn’t be Demi Moore.

I know—saying this might make it sound like I missed the point of The Substance entirely. But in a year brimming with powerhouse performances, I struggle to see how Moore’s turn rises to the level of Oscar-worthy. Not only do I find the film itself unremarkable as an awards contender, but her performance, while commendable, doesn’t match the depth and nuance of her fellow nominees.

If Moore wins, it will feel less like a recognition of this particular role and more like a lifetime achievement award in disguise. Frankly, I would have loved to see Vic Carmen Sonne nominated for The Girl With the Needle, but that’s a different conversation.

The Oscars should be about celebrating the most extraordinary work of the year. And yet, on the eve of the 97th Academy Awards, the momentum suggests that Moore may take home the statue. I want to see Demi Moore succeed—I like Demi Moore. I just don’t think this is the film that should earn her Hollywood’s highest honor.